Archive for the tag “Gail Tverberg”

News update

Goldilocks Is Dead
Richard Heinberg
Five years ago I wrote an article for Reuters titled “Goldilocks and the Three Fuels.” In it, I discussed what I call the Goldilocks price zone for oil, natural gas, and coal, a zone in which prices are “just right”—high enough to reward producers but low enough to entice consumers. Ever since the start of the fossil fuel era, such a zone has existed, but not any more. This will have staggering consequences throughout the economy for the foreseeable future.

Cheap oil, complexity and counterintuitive conclusions
Kurt Cobb
It is a staple of oil industry apologists to say that the recent swift decline in the price of oil is indicative of long-term abundance. Cheerleaders for cheap oil only seem to consider the salutary effects of low-priced oil on the broader economy and skip mentioning the deleterious effects of high-priced oil. They seem to ignore the possibility that the previously high price of oil actually caused the economy to slow and thereby dampened demandwhich then led to a huge price decline.

The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem
Gail Tverberg
For a long time, there has been a belief that the decline in oil supply will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will exceed supply. It seems to me that this view is backward–the decline in supply will come through low oil prices. The oil glut we are experiencing now reflects a worldwide affordability crisis. Because of a lack of affordability, demand is depressed.  This lack of demand keeps prices low–below the cost of production for many producers.

Costa Rica uses 100% renewable energy for past 75 days.
How are they doing it?

Christian Science Monitor
The entire country of Costa Rica is currently running on completely renewable energy and has been for 75 days now. Relying mainly on hydropower, Costa Rica has not used any fossil fuels to generate electricity since the beginning of 2015. The heavy rainfall over the past year has kept hydroplants busy enough to power nearly the whole country, with geothermal, wind, biomass, and solar energy making up the deficit, according to a press release from the Costa Rican Electricity Institute.

Pollinating species declining, reveals first global assessment
International Union for Conservation of Nature
According to a new study by IUCN and partners, the conservation status of pollinating bird and mammal species is deteriorating, with more species moving towards extinction than away from it. On average, 2.4 bird and mammal pollinator species per year have moved one IUCN Red List category towards extinction in recent decades, representing a substantial increase in extinction risk across this set of species.

As Himalayan Glaciers Melt, Two Towns Face the Fallout
Daniel Grossman, Yale Environment 360
For two towns in northern India, melting glaciers have had very different impacts — one town has benefited from flowing streams and bountiful harvests; but the other has seen its water supplies dry up and now is being forced to relocate.

The Politics of Extinction 
William deBuys, Tomdispatch.com
To grasp the breadth of the carnage now going on, it’s essential to realize that the war against nature is being waged on an almost infinite number of planetary fronts, affecting hundreds of species, and that the toll is already devastating. Among the battlefields, none may be bloodier than the forests of Southeast Asia, for they lie closest to China, the world’s most ravenous (and lucrative) market for wildlife and wildlife parts.

How do Empires hunt bears? The control of natural resources from ancient Rome to our times
Ugo Bardi, Resource Crisis
How did the Romans manage to keep their Empire together so well and for such a long time? It was, obviously a question of control. The entities we call states (and their more aggressive version known as empires) exist because the center can control the periphery. This control takes various forms, but, basically, it is the result of the financial system: money.

News update

Indias 100 GW Solar Target Could Create 1 Million Jobs by 2022
The Energy Collective
Delhi is abuzz as the first renewable energy-financing summit organized by the Indian government, RE-Invest 2015, wrapped up with commitments totaling a whopping 266 GW of renewable energy in the next 5 years. For context of the magnitude of these commitments, the country currently has about 250 GW of total installed power from all sources. According to a new interim report, if India achieves its new target of 100 GW of installed solar energy by 2022, as many as 1 million FTE jobs could be created.

Is the US Overplaying Its Energy Hand?
Richard Heinberg
This is how empires crash: the folks in charge pay their information ministries to come up with only good news; rulers act on the basis of unrealistic assumptions; reality bites; and when it does, no one is prepared. The evidence suggests the United States is playing energy poker with a pair of jacks in its hand, but betting as if it had four aces.

Israel, Gaza, and Energy Wars in the Middle East
Michael Schwartz, Tomdispatch.com
Amid the many fossil-fueled conflicts in the region, one of them, packed with threats, large and small, has been largely overlooked, and Israel is at its epicenter. Its origins can be traced back to the early 1990s when Israeli and Palestinian leaders began sparring over rumored natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean off the coast of Gaza.

The Problem of Debt as We Reach Oil Limits (Part 3 – A New Theory of Energy and the Economy)
Gail Tverberg
Many readers have asked me to explain debt. They also wonder, “Why can’t we just cancel debt and start over?” if we are reaching oil limits, and these limits threaten to destabilize the system. To answer these questions, I need to talk about the subject of promises in general, not just what we would call debt.

Fooling peak oil one more time: can we find new sources of liquid hydrocarbons?
Ugo Bardi
The world peak of conventional oil production took place in 2005-2006, but the supply of combustible liquids did not decline, mainly because of the contribution of the newly developed shale oil (or tight oil) fields. With the impending worldwide peak of all liquids it is likely that the industry will try a new, all out effort to squeeze out the last drops of liquid oil from whatever sources are available, no matter how dirty and expensive.

Is An Infinite Amount of Oil Enough?
Rhett Allain, Wired.com
The burning of oil based products produces carbon dioxide and other stuff that’s not so nice. Also, there is only so much oil in the ground. Sure, the Earth keeps making more through a very slow process. But we are using it up way faster than it is being created by natural means. So, the question is: how much oil can we find? How long will it last? Let’s get started.

To Make Hope Possible Rather Than Despair Convincing
David Bollier
Discourse is law.  And it’s something that progressive advocates have never really learned.  They have never developed a discourse that can express their own putative values.  Wittingly or not, most have instead embraced the utopian narrative of American neoliberalism – that human progress will continue through economic growth, better technology, and a system of government that caters to the demands of capital while making grudging concessions to social or environmental concerns. 

News update

What is Saudi Arabia not telling us about its oil future?
Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights
What if the Saudis are acting now to undermine U.S. and Canadian oil production because they realize that Saudi production will soon reach a peak? What if the Saudis fear that energy efficiency, fuel substitution (say, toward natural gas), and mandated greenhouse gas emission reductions will inevitably diminish their oil revenues beyond the next decade? What if this coming decade will therefore be the best time to maximize Saudi revenues per barrel?

The worlds energy information duopoly comes to an end
Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights
Until now most energy price and supply forecasts and analyses were based predominately on information from the globes two leading energy information agencies: the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Recent developments are beginning to undermine the supremacy of the worlds long-running energy information duopoly and its perennially optimistic narrative.

The Year the Dam of Denial Breaks on Climate Change
Paul Gilding, Cockatoo Chronicles
This is the year the “dam of denial” will break and the momentum for climate action will become an unstoppable flood. It will be messy, confusing and endlessly debated but with historical hindsight, 2015 will be the year. The year the world turned, primarily because the market woke up to the economic threat posed by climate change and the economic opportunity in the inevitable decline of fossil fuels.

A clash of epistemologies: why the debate on climate change is going nowhere
Ugo Bardi, Resource Crisis
Scientists know how much work and study is needed to understand climate science and resent what they saw as superficiality and approximation in the debate. The result is the kind of clash we saw on the SCI blog. It was, if you like, a clash of epistemologies: rhetoric against the scientific method.

William Cattons warning
Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights
Overshoot
 may stand as the central text of the 20th century about the ecological fate of humankind. The book represents a missed opportunity in that so few people were able to hear what Catton had to say in 1980, and so few want to hear it noweven as the headlines are filled with the very precursors of the bottleneck he laments in his last major piece of writing.

Extinct—Extincter—Extinctest
Dmitry Orlov
The current low prices are not high enough to sustain this new, expensive production for much longer, and the current glut is starting to look like a feast to be followed by famine. The direct cause of this famine will not be energy but debt, but it can still be traced back to energy.

Utopians are ruining everything
Leaving Babylon
Utopian memes have misled people into thinking that top-down design of ideal societies is the right strategy for creating a better world. Even permaculture has been infected, imposing top-down landscaping designs upon the land with predictably disappointing results. (Also see the follow-up post: Generating a future that works)

A Moral Code For The Post-Collapse World
Zero Hedge
Popular media today, including television and cinema, are rife with examples of what is often referred to as moral relativism — the use of false and fictional moral dilemmas designed to promote the rationalization of an “ends justify the means” narrative.

News update

The Fracking Bust Hits Home
Wolf Richter, Wolf Street
In the latest reporting week, drillers idled another 84 rigs, the second biggest weekly cut ever, after idling 83 and 94 rigs in the two prior weeks. Only 1056 rigs are still drilling for oil, down 443 for the seven reporting weeks so far this year and down 553 – or 34%! – from the peak in October. Never before has the rig count plunged this fast this far.

Part Of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Starting Slow, Unstoppable Collapse
The Huffington Post
The huge West Antarctic ice sheet is starting a glacially slow collapse in an unstoppable way, two new studies show. Alarmed scientists say that means even more sea level rise than they figured. The worrisome outcomes wont be seen soon. Scientists are talking hundreds of years, but over that time the melt that has started could eventually add 4 to 12 feet to current sea levels.

Cold Fusion Takes Another Step Towards Credibility
Oilprice.com
Professor Alexander Parkhomov of Lomonosov Moscow State University has published a paper describing his successful replication of Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat LENR or cold fusion device. It seems Parkhomov managed to acquire enough working data from Swedish and Italian academics to execute an experimental replication that offers data showing 2.74 more energy out than put in.

Why Cheap Oil Does Not Mean that Peak Oil is a Myth
Chris Rhodes, Energy Balance
Peak oil is a fundamental tenet of the Transition Towns concept, but the current return of “cheap oil” has muddied the waters about how to discuss it. Heres a response to the debate following the prevailing low oil price, set within the context of whether or not we can now dismiss peak oil, e.g. as is currently being contested.

Charts showing the long-term GDP-energy tie (Part 2 – A New Theory of Energy and the Economy)
Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World
In Part 1 of this series, I talked about why cheap fuels act to create economic growth. In this post, we will look at some supporting data showing how this connection works. The data is over a very long time period–some of it going back to the Year 1 C. E.

Who gets left with the unburnable carbon?
Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture
Christophe McGlade is a research associate in energy materials modelling at the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources. He recently co-authored, with Paul Ekins, a paper called “The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2°C”, a paper whose stark call to leave the substantial majority of fossil fuels in the ground generated a lot of media coverage

Fossil Fuel Use is Limited by Climate, if Not by Resources
Chris Rhodes, Energy Balance
A study by researchers at University College London conclude that it will be necessary to leave some two thirds of the fossil fuels available to us unburned, to achieve just a 50% chance of keeping global warming within the 2 degree C limit. From their analysis, they deduce more specifically that it is necessary to leave one third of the oil, half of the gas and more than 80% of the worlds coal in the ground, up to 2050.

Why People Dont Believe in Climate Science
Global Warming Is Real
It’s a hoax, it’s the sun, it’s scientists after grant money, it’s a play for world domination. Then there’s Al Gore, the favorite straw man for many climate change deniers. One thing is clear, facts don’t matter. A climate change narrative based solely on facts hasn’t worked and won’t work. Why is this?

How One Neighborhood in Seoul Sparked a Movement of Urban Villages
Cat Johnson, Shareable
In 1994, when city officials threatened to remove trees from the top of Mt. Sungmi, in Mapo-gu, Seoul for the creation of a water facility, a group of neighbors joined forces to oppose the plan. By banding together, a community was created. After defeating the plan for the facility, the community continued to organize, eventually becoming the Sungmisan Village which encompasses a one-kilometer radius at the base of the mountain and now connects over 700 families.

News update

OPEC Chief Claims Oil Could Rebound to $200 a barrel
Oilprice.com
OPEC’s secretary-general says the 7-month-old plunge in oil prices finally may have bottomed out and may be ready to rise again. In fact, Abdullah al-Badri hypothesized that a decision by his cartel to cut production conceivably could lead to oil at $200 a barrel.

The most important thing about the coming oil production cutbacks
Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights
What the current oil price slump means for world oil supply is starting to emerge. Layoffs, cutbacks, delays, and cancellations are words one sees in headlines concerning the oil industry every day. But perhaps the most important thing you need to understand about the coming oil production cutbacks is where they are going to come from, namely Canada and the United States. Why is this important? For one very simple reason. Without growth in production from these two countries, world oil production from the first quarter of 2005 through the third quarter of 2014 would have declined 513,000 barrels per day. Thats right, declined.

A new theory of energy and the economy – Part 1
Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World
How does the economy really work? In my view, there are many erroneous theories in published literature. I have been investigating this topic and have come to the conclusion that both energy and debt play an extremely important role in an economic system. Once energy supply and other aspects of the economy start hitting diminishing returns, there is a serious chance that a debt implosion will bring the whole system down.

Forests Precede Us, Deserts Follow
X-Ray Mike, Collapse of Industrial Civilization
studies have confirmed that the Amazon appears to becoming more unstable in response to the large-scale environmental impact of rising CO2 and the cumulative effects of land degradation by humans Modern-day Brazil and the entire industrialized world are repeating the same mistake made by past civilizations such as the Mayans who cleared their forests for agriculture and development.

The Mariners Rule
John Michael Greer, The Archdruid Report
One of the things my readers ask me most often, in response to this blog’s exploration of the ongoing decline and impending fall of modern industrial civilization, is what I suggest people ought to do about it all. It’s a valid question, and it deserves a serious answer. (Also see the comments section at bottom of page).

Our Renewable Future (Or, What I’ve Learned in 12 Years Writing about Energy)
Richard Heinberg, Post Carbon Institute
Will our energy future be fueled by fossils (with or without carbon capture technology), or powered by abundant, renewable wind and sunlight? Or is our energy destiny located in a Terra Incognita that neither fossil fuel promoters nor renewable energy advocates talk much about? As maddening as it may be, the latter conclusion may be the one best supported by the facts. If that uncharted land had a motto, it might be, “How we use energy is as important as how we get it.”

How The Power to Convene can transform Transition
Rob Hopkins, Transition Network
Clearly there is ample evidence that working in partnership with other individuals and organisations can be highly effective as opposed to everyone feeling the need to always start from scratch and reinvent the wheel. But done well, Transition can bring something new, something different, to it. It can be a powerful thing to harness.

Reuse and Repair Centres – a Solution for a Circular economy
Sophie Unwin, REconomy project
“What if we could have a centre where we could reuse and repair different materials instead of sending them to landfill or burning them? Why don’t we have elderly immigrants teaching unemployed bankers something useful?”

2015: the bad news

He who laughs has not yet heard the bad news.
Bertolt Brecht

(Editors Note: As a necessary corrective to the unbridled optimism of the mainstream media, heres a selection of forecasts for 2015 by some of the most insightful alternative voices on world politics, energy and the economy. For those in a hurry, heres a one-line summary: a global recession may be around the corner.)

The Cold Wet Mackerel of Reality
John Michael Greer
One of the entertainments 2015 has in store for us is a thumping economic crisis here in the US, and in every other country that depends on our economy for its bread and butter. The scale of the crash depends on how many people bet how much of their financial future on the fantasy of an endless frack-propelled boom, but my guess is it’ll be somewhere around the scale of the 2008 real estate bust. (Also read Greers follow-up post: A Camp Amid the Ruins)

Forecast 2015 — Life in the Breakdown Lane
James Howard Kunstler
The signal event of 2015 will be the disintegration of Tom Friedman’s global economy, the trade and banking relations we have known for about a quarter century, especially the frictionless flow of goods and capital between East and West.

Oil and the Economy: Where are We Headed in 2015-16?
Gail Tverberg
Eventually we are likely to experience a much worse situation than we did in the 2007-2009 period, although this may not be evident at first. It will be only over a period of time, after some of the initial “dominoes fall” that we will see what is really happening.

Five energy surprises for 2015
Kurt Cobb
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don’t know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.

Oil Price Scenarios For 2015 And 2016
Euan Mearns
In this post I use an empirical supply and demand dynamic to try and constrain the oil price a year from now and in 2016. The outcome is heavily dependent upon assumptions made about supply and demand and the behavior of OPEC and the banking sector. Three different scenarios are presented with December 2015 prices ranging from $45 to $100 / bbl.

The bear is back: A cautionary tale of global gloom
Gerard Minack, former Morgan Stanley strategist
The problem is the next crisis will not be in the periphery and it will not be in the banks; it will be economic and it will be in the core.

11 Predictions of Economic Disaster in 2015 from Top Experts All Over the Globe
Centre for Research on Globalization
Over the past couple of years, we have all watched as global financial bubbles have gotten larger and larger. Despite predictions that they could burst at any time, they have just continued to expand. But just like we witnessed in 2001 and 2008, all financial bubbles come to an end at some point, and when they do implode the pain can be extreme.

News update

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This
Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse blog
There has only been one other time in history when the price of oil has crashed by more than 40 dollars in less than 6 months. The last time this happened was during the second half of 2008, and the beginning of that oil price crash preceded the great financial collapse that happened later that year by several months. Well, now it is happening again, but this time the stakes are even higher. (Snyders latest post: Anyone That Believes That Collapsing Oil Prices Are Good For The Economy Is Crazy)

Ten Reasons Why a Severe Drop in Oil Prices is a Problem
Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World
If high oil prices can be a problem, how can low oil prices also be a problem? In particular, how can the steep drop in oil prices we have recently been experiencing also be a problem? Here is an explanation. (Also see: Energy Matters blog post: Oil price wars – who blinks first? which says OPEC is bound to trump the U.S. shale oil producers in the ongoing price war)

Signs Of Peak Oil Starting To Emerge
Euan Mearns, Oilprice.com
What caused the recent crash in the oil price from $110 (Brent) in July to $70 today and what is going to happen next? With the world producing 94 Mbpd (IEA total liquids) $1.4 trillion has just been wiped off annualized global GDP and the incomes of producing and exporting nations. Energy will get cheaper again, for a while at least. The immediate impact is a reduction in global GDP and deflationary pressure.

India Says Pollution Levels Need to Rise Further to Boost Growth
Bloomberg Businessweek
India said its pollution levels will need to increase in the years ahead to support its economic development and it won’t discuss limiting greenhouse-gas emissions at United Nations climate talks that began this week. Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar also said the government is preparing to make a pledge on how India will develop cleaner forms of energy, though he stopped short of indicating when the country might take on the sorts of caps for emissions that the U.S., China and Europe are adopting. (Editors note: Heres another report based on Javadekars statement, which puts a completely different spin on it: India plans 5-fold increase in renewable energy. Also see: The Next Big Climate Question: Will India Follow China?)

A Dam Revival, Despite Risks
Erica Gies, The New York Times
While some dams in the United States and Europe are being decommissioned, a dam-building boom is underway in developing countries. World hydropower production will grow from 4,000 terawatt hours now — about the annual power output of the United States — to 4,670 terawatt hours in 2020, according to Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, in Paris. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that hydropower generation will double in China between 2008 and 2035, and triple in India and Africa.

Solar as Industrial Revolution
The New York Times
The Hanergy Holding Group, created in 1994 and based in Beijing, is a major renewable-energy company, notably in thin-film solar technology. Its founder and chairman, Li Hejun, has written a book, China’s New Energy Revolution, recently translated into English, in which he argues that solar energy will lead a third industrial revolution.

Energy Efficiency May Be the Key to Saving Trillions
Beth Gardiner, The New York Times
Compared with eye-catching renewable power technologies like wind turbines and solar panels, energy efficiency is nearly invisible. But advocates say doing more with less power may be an even more critical weapon in the fight against climate change and offers big economic benefits, too.

Permaculture, a Vision of the Post-Oil World
Yves Cochet, originally published by Holmgren Design
More than an agricultural technology, permaculture is a vision of the societies of tomorrow, ours, which will be confronted with the evolution of energy and climate systems. Permaculture is not only another way to garden: it is another way of thinking about and acting on the world, a global philosophical and concrete change, at the same time as a drawing together of strategies of resilience in the face of radical transformations, if not collapses, which are presenting themselves.

News update

Coal Rush in India Could Tip Balance on Climate Change
The New York Times
India’s coal mining plans may represent the biggest obstacle to a global climate pact to be negotiated at a conference in Paris next year. “If India goes deeper and deeper into coal, we’re all doomed,” said Veerabhadran Ramanathan, director of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and one of the world’s top climate scientists. “And no place will suffer more than India.”

UN report: Climate change has permanently ruined farmland the size of France
The Independent, UK
There may be those who feel the apocalyptic plot of the new Hollywood film Interstellar seems a bit far-fetched, with humans forced to look for an alternative planet because this world can no longer feed them. But it has been given credence by a new United Nations report that has found that the destruction of the environment has left an area of farmland the size of France useless for growing crops.

NASA Shows Stark Year in the Life of CO2
Climate Central
This animated video shows what your atmosphere looks like in carbon dioxide (CO2). And it’s not a pretty sight. Nasa provides a stark and stunning view of a year in the life of our planet as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases that warm the planet. The animation comes courtesy of one of the highest-resolution computer models in existence.

Oil Prices Are Dropping. So What?
Politico Magazine
The global oil supply has increased and demand has weakened, prices are down to about $80 a barrel, a more than 25 percent drop since June, and recently fell to a three-year low. What should we make of this shakeup? Will it scramble the economy or upend global politics? The United States  leading energy thinkers on how dropping oil prices matter the most—or don’t—for Washington.

The Future of Oil Supply: An Interview with Dr. Richard G. Miller
Steve Andrews, ASPO-USA
Dr. Richard G. Miller, trained as a geologist, joined BP as a geochemist in 1985. He studied peak oil matters since 1991, when BP asked him the following year to devise a wholly new way to estimate global oil resources. In 2000, he was tasked with creating an in-house projection of global future oil demand and supply to 2030. The model he created was updated annually through 2008; then the effort was disbanded and he moved on to his present work consulting on peak oil.

Eight Pitfalls in Evaluating Green Energy Solutions
Gail Tverberg
Does the recent climate accord between US and China mean that many countries will now forge ahead with renewables and other green solutions? I think that there are more pitfalls than many realize.

Don’t Ask How to Feed the 9 Billion
Mark Bittman, The New York Times
The difference between you and the hungry is not production levels; it’s money. There are no hungry people with money; there isn’t a shortage of food, nor is there a distribution problem. There is an I-don’t-have-the-land-and-resources-to-produce-my-own-food, nor-can-I-afford-to-buy-food problem.

Questions We Should Have Asked about Technology
Jerry Mander, originally published by Between the Lines
The transcript of Jerry Manders talk at the recent International Forum on Globalization teach-in, Techno-Utopianism and the Fate of the Earth, which took place October 25th-26th in New York City

News update

Oil Price Slide No Good Way Out
Gail Tverberg
The world is in a dangerous place now. A large share of oil sellers need the revenue from oil sales. They have to continue producing, regardless of how low oil prices go unless they are stopped by bankruptcy, revolution, or something else that gives them a very clear signal to stop.

Oil Price Fall Threatens US Oil Production
Steve Austin, Oil-price.net
A falling oil price is good for the US consumer and good for the US economy. Transport costs feed into the price of every physical product, so if oil gets cheaper, everything gets cheaper. If the oil price falls too far, however, the USAs recent fracking boom will come to an end. Forces are at play to end the USAs projected energy independence and return the country to dependence on the Middle East for its fuel supplies. The USAs long-term key supplier, Saudi Arabia, doesnt want to lose grip on its best customer.

Peak oil vs mean reversion: why trees don’t grow to the skies  
Rajeev Thakkar, Livemint
There are differing views on the significance of peak oil theory, when peak oil will be reached and the production quantity then. Also, the impact on the global economy is not certain. I am no geologist or scientist. But I am a firm believer in the application of mean reversion and the effect of balancing factors in any economic system. Hence, when oil or commodity prices shoot up relentlessly in one direction, a balancing decline becomes a possibility.

29 Bullets That Tell All about Climate Challenge
Mark Fischetti, Scientific American
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released it final report crystallizing 13 months of work by more than 800 scientists. The “synthesis report” gives a no-nonsense assessment of how the climate is changing, what is causing the change, the impacts the changes will have on us and the planet, and the “mitigation” steps we should take to prevent the impacts from getting worse.

The End of the Market Economy
John Michael Greer
One of the factors that makes it difficult to think through the economic consequences of the end of the industrial age is that we’ve all grown up in a world where every form of economic activity has been channeled through certain familiar forms for so long that very few people remember that things could be any other way. Another of the factors that make the same effort of thinking difficult is that the conventional economic thought of our time has invested immense effort and oceans of verbiage into obscuring the fact that things could be any other way.

Stop Growing or Meet the Four Horsemen?
Mary Odum
Americans are now receiving unsubtle messages from the universe that perhaps we have reached our limits, and it is time to stop trying to grow the economy. The four horsemen of pestilence, famine, war, and death are emerging on a global basis, as energy inputs wane and the global economic system begins to turn down. Yet feedback from the system is still telling our system to grow expand, when perhaps it would be wiser to expend more energy on resilient contraction.

Climate depression is for real. Just ask a scientist
Madeleine Thomas, Grist.org
From depression to substance abuse to suicide and post-traumatic stress disorder, growing bodies of research in the relatively new field of psychology of global warming suggest that climate change will take a pretty heavy toll on the human psyche as storms become more destructive and droughts more prolonged. For your everyday environmentalist, the emotional stress suffered by a rapidly changing Earth can result in some pretty substantial anxieties.

News update

Ebola: Uncharted territory for a system in overshoot
Mary Odum, Prosperouswaydown.com
We are in uncharted territory with the Ebola virus disease (EVD). This pandemic signifies a turning point for society in response to peak oil, highlighting the problem of globalization for a planet of 7 billion people. We have lost control of a deadly outbreak, and our responses to its exponential growth are linear at best, ensuring that this plague will most likely spread further.

Peak Oil: Are We In The Eye Of The Storm?
Oilprice.com
A temporary surge in what was heretofore a little-known source of oil in the U.S. is masking the larger story of what is taking place in the global oil situation. The simple answer is that except for the U.S. shale oil surge, almost no increase in oil production is taking place around the world.

WSJ Gets It Wrong: Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True
Gail Tverberg
On September 29, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a story called “Why Peak Oil Predictions Haven’t Come True.” The story is written as if there are only two possible outcomes: 1) The Peak Oil version of what to expect from oil limits is correct, or 2) Diminishing Returns can and are being put off by technological progress–the view of the WSJ. It seems to me, though, that a third outcome is not only possible, but is what is actually happening. (Heres another refutation of the WSJ article by Kevin Drum, writing in Mother Jones: Peak Oil Is All About Cheap Oil)

Why the People’s Climate March Fails As a Strategy
Zaid Hassan, Caravan Magazine
The People’s Climate March was organized in cooperation with the New York Police—who formally issued a permit for it. It had pre-arranged start and end times. It had a pre-agreed route that ended a mile away from the UN building (not that global leaders were there on a Sunday). There were no closing speeches. No laws were broken. No arrests were made.

Scientists speed up analysis of human link to wild weather
Yahoo News
Climate scientists hope to be able to tell the world almost in real-time whether global warming has a hand in extreme weather thanks to an initiative they plan to launch by the end of 2015.

Wildlife populations down drastically
Daily Mail, UK
Populations of about 3,000 species of wildlife around the world have plummeted far worse than previously thought, according to a new study by one of the worlds biggest environmental groups. The study from the Swiss-based WWF largely blamed human threats to nature for a 52-percent decline in wildlife populations between 1970 and 2010.

Worlds Population Unlikely To Stabilize This Century
io9.com
Contrary to previous projections, it now appears that the worlds population is unlikely to stop growing this century. Theres at least an 80% chance that between 9.6 and 12.3 billion humans will inhabit the Earth by 2100 — and much of this increase will happen in Africa. Its the first U.N. population report to use Bayesian methods — a modern form of statistics that combines all available information to generate more accurate predictions.

Can Narendra Modi bring the solar power revolution to India?
The Guardian, UK
As chief minister of Gujarat, Modi spurred companies to build more than 900MW of solar plant across the state in just a couple of years. Now, as prime minister, the question is whether he can repeat the feat across India, which receives more sunlight than any other country in the G20.

Irony alert: Yergin gets award named after peak oil realist Schlesinger
Kurt Cobb, Resource Insights
It is a supreme irony that cornucopian oil industry mouthpiece and consultant Daniel Yergin should receive Americas first medal for energy security named after James Schlesinger, the first U.S. energy secretary, who was a peak oil realist.

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